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April Lean Hogs opened lower and traded down to the low of the day at 85.15. The breakdown took price below support at 85.325 and the rising 100-DMA now at 85.175. Price reversed course from here and rallied to the high of the day at 86.825.  The rally stalled just below the rising 50-DMA now at 86.90. Price reversed course yet again and challenged the low of the day and settled at 85.625. Price is at a critical juncture in my opinion as today’s range covered critical long-term moving averages. Stopping at the 50 and 100-DMAs at the high and low. It is all about the cash market in my opinion as it has stagnated, unable to crack 100 on the cutout index and falling after briefly getting back above the 90 handle. Exports are fluctuating with last week strong and this week’s exports on the weak side in my opinion. Tariffs are stiff on the horizon and today’s export number calls into question whether we will see front-loading of purchases before the tariffs hit the market. Slaughter numbers have been low but weights have risen calling into question the currentness of the hog supply. With the lower slaughter numbers, you are getting good production with the added weight and we are seeing an inability for prices to climb calling into question the demand for pork. It is a tough situation all-around as we need strong exports to help get prices moving higher and the lower exports and higher weights is keeping a lid on the ability for price to rise. If exports stay down from here, we could see prices sag in the cash market as more supply in the US will limit upward price movement in my opinion. Consumer demand will have to surge and even with the Easter holiday approaching I don’t believe it will be enough to keep prices growing. It is an uncertain time to be sure for the pork industry.   We’ll see!... A breakdown below the 100-DMA could see price test support at the 200-DMA now at 83.675. Support then comes in at 83.325. If price can hold settlement, we could see a re-test of resistance at the 50-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 87.10. 

The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 97.18 as of 03/12/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 89.77 as of 03/11/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Thursday is 489,000, which is above last week’s 485,000 and last year’s 471,161. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 1,954,000, which is above last week’s 1,817,000 and laswt year’s 1,894,582.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

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